Good post + thanks for your service.

I have one hesitation about the usage "I'd bet" meaning "I'd actually bet against humans reading this": sometimes you would take a bet if it was offered by a random-bet-generator, but you wouldn't bet against a human because them-wanting-to-bet-you is evidence that you're wrong. Nevertheless, I agree with your usage proposals.

(Related weirdness: if there's an ideal prediction market on X, nobody will bet on X at a price different from the market price. This at least shows it's good that we can talk about credences without talking about bets. I feel like it might show something more but I don't know what.)

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