An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.
quri.substack.com
Summary I compiled a dataset of 206 mathematical conjectures together with the years in which they were posited. Then in a few years, I intend to check whether the probabilities implied by Laplace’s rule—which only depends on the number of years passed since a conjecture was created—are about right.
An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.
An in-progress experiment to test how…
An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.
Summary I compiled a dataset of 206 mathematical conjectures together with the years in which they were posited. Then in a few years, I intend to check whether the probabilities implied by Laplace’s rule—which only depends on the number of years passed since a conjecture was created—are about right.